A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
